Capital
+8
/
Sep 10, 2025
Institutional capital is lining up for rescue capital as the maturity wall crests.
+3
Cottonwood raises $1B “special situations” fund, doubling target as investors chase distress opportunities in a frozen CRE market.
National
+2
U.S. apartment rents fell again in August, as 950k new units under delivery push vacancies higher and blunt landlords’ pricing power.
Hospitality
Luxury hotels are driving hospitality’s rebound, posting RevPAR and ADR gains while midscale and economy segments slip under cost pressures and weak demand. The market is splitting into clear winners and losers.
Development
High-end brands continue to secure scarce trophy retail locations, sustaining rent growth even as international tourism lags.
Distress
Silver Star’s default highlights U.S. office distress: 21% national vacancy, Sunbelt weakness, and lenders tightening on extensions.
Retail
Retail REITs post record 96.6% occupancy as new supply hits historic lows; landlords gain leverage with steady NOI growth and limited competition.
Industrial financing resilience: Starwood’s $930M refinancing shows lenders’ deep appetite for logistics portfolios, even at higher rates, with below-market rents providing embedded growth.
+4
Sep 9, 2025
Brent’s bounce to ~$66 offsets a sharp summer slide, easing hotel utility pressure while volatility lingers.
Chicago
Medical office assets in Chicago post record absorption, steady rents, and renewed investor demand as general offices falter.
Markets now assign ~90% odds to a September Fed cut, with some banks calling 50 bps. Relief boosts refi math but doesn’t change long-run cap-rate expectations.
Spot gold holds just below all-time highs, reflecting rate cut expectations and macro caution. Allocators are tilting into real assets and secured credit, creating knock-on signals for CRE capital flows.
Brent’s bounce to ~$66 offsets a sharp summer slide, easing hotel utility pressure. Forward curves point lower, giving operators a narrow cost tailwind into Q4.
Yen weakens after PM resignation, Nikkei rallies, gold near records. Stronger USD/JPY reshapes inbound tourism and Japanese capital flows into U.S. CRE.
Sep 8, 2025
A sharp pullback in development sets up a 2026–27 supply drought.
U.S. rents fell in August as deliveries peaked. Supply-heavy Sun Belt metros are contracting while supply-constrained coasts and the Midwest hold up. 09/2025. Sources: CoStar
CMBS delinquencies rose for the sixth straight month to 7.29% in August. Office hit a record 11.66% and multifamily climbed to a nine-year high at 6.86%, tightening credit and accelerating workouts.
The RCA CPPI turned positive again. Two straight YoY gains signal a floor, led by retail and industrial while office bifurcation persists
Incremental gains show market resilience; debt costly but available keeps transactions flowing.
Occupancy ~63% and RevPAR up just 0.2% YoY amid High Season Travel Records
Visitor volume fell double digits into July. Strip hotel metrics and national RevPAR point to a softer near-term runway while operators tout value and big-event tailwinds. Sept 2025. Sources below.
JLL reports lifestyle office markets command 32% rent premiums, twice-as-fast lease-ups, and lower vacancy—signaling a structural shift in office demand.
Office
Average MOB rents reached record highs, demand turned positive, and capital inflows accelerated in Q2 2025, confirming medical office as a defensive outperformer.
Q2 sales fell to $9.6B, the second-weakest quarter in 10+ years, as financing costs thinned the buyer pool. Cap rates averaged 6.93% and rose only 3 bps, indicating stabilization.
Dollar volume rose even as the market did fewer trades. Large, institutional deals carried Q2 while small and mid-market liquidity thinned. Sep 2025. Source: Altus Group Investment Trends Report (Q2 2025).
