📢Good morning,

 Waterton acquired “The Mason” (263 units) in Chicago’s Fulton Market for $89.5M (~$340k/unit), marking one of the city’s largest post-rate-hike multifamily trades.

Asking rents rose +10.7% YoY in August, far outpacing the U.S. average of +2.6%, helping deals clear mid-5% cap rates despite ~6%+ debt costs. More than 4,200 units have been marketed since spring, signaling bid-ask alignment and renewed institutional activity.

📊 Quick Dive

  • Sale: $89.5M (~$340k/unit), The Mason, Sept 2025 (CoStar).

  • Rent growth: +10.7% YoY Chicago vs +2.6% U.S. (Redfin).

  • Supply: 4,200+ downtown units listed since April (CoStar).

Roreign Capital Backs New Joliet Logistics Build
Singapore’s Mapletree secured ~29 acres in Joliet, IL to develop a 418,880-SF warehouse, its second Chicago deal in months. U.S. industrial completions plunged 44.6% YoY to 71.5 MSF in Q2, setting up tighter 2026 supply. With Chicago leasing hitting 10.7 MSF in the quarter, big-box demand is resilient, making pre-leasing leverage stronger for developers.

Hotels Flat; Luxury Outperforms
National hotel RevPAR slipped –0.7% YoY for the week ending Sept 6, with Top-25 markets underperforming. Luxury segments still grew +4% on weekdays, while economy hotels fell nearly –4%. CMBS hotel delinquency eased slightly to ~6.5%. The result is a widening bifurcation — prime flags hold value, while economy assets face tightening debt and rising DSCR pressure.

Milestone Raises $1.1B Sunbelt Value-Add Fund
Dallas-based Milestone Group closed Fund VI at $1.1B (hard cap) to acquire and reposition suburban Sunbelt multifamily. H1 2025 global fundraising reached $111B, signaling LP appetite for defensive housing. With $2T of U.S. CRE debt maturing by 2027 — $591B flagged as troubled — equity-backed recaps and assumptions are becoming central execution tools.

Salesforce Expands NYC Footprint Amid AI Upswing
Salesforce expanded its New York office by 71,000 SF — a 25% increase to 310,500 SF. Tech now accounts for ~16–18% of U.S. leasing, concentrated in Class A towers. With Manhattan Class A rents near ~$82 psf, landlords with credit tenants can defend NOI and improve refinancing prospects even as broader office stock struggles.

Cap-rate stability in Chicago multifamily, foreign capital in Midwest logistics, and selective tech expansions in Manhattan all underscore the same theme: quality demand is still clearing. But bifurcation is widening — luxury hotels, Class A offices, and core multifamily outperform, while economy hotels and secondary offices remain under stress.

For operators, this means structuring deals around tenant credit and location resilience, while maintaining conservative exits and flexible financing. Lenders are rewarding visibility and quality NOI, not yield-chasing.

  • More large Chicago trades expected into Q4 as bid-ask spreads narrow.

  • Watch Joliet and I-80 corridor pre-leasing — pipeline cuts favor 2026 pricing.

  • Hotel bifurcation persists: luxury stable, economy challenged.

  • Sunbelt recapitalization accelerates as $2T of debt rolls through 2027.

  • Manhattan Class A leasing is the barometer for office refinancing momentum.

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