🚨U.S. hotels posted a –1.7% RevPAR decline year-over-year for the week ending Sept. 13, the sharpest weekly drop in two months [Source: STR/CoStar]. Occupancy slipped to 65.4% (–1.8 pts YoY) while ADR held flat at $162.71 [Source: Hotel News Resource]. Market dynamics diverged: New York City surged on event demand, but Anaheim and Washington, D.C. saw double-digit occupancy and RevPAR losses. For CRE capital, this signals a cautious turn in underwriting—stabilized demand ceilings appear lower, and lenders will tighten proceeds on weaker markets while backing outperformers like NYC.
U.S. Occupancy: 65.4% (week ending Sept 13, 2025), –1.8 pts YoY
ADR (U.S.): $162.71, +0.1% YoY
RevPAR (U.S.): $106.43, –1.7% YoY
Anaheim RevPAR: $149.80, –24.2% YoY
Loan Performance. Flat ADR with slipping occupancy means NOI forecasts need trimming; DSCR cushions tighten in secondary markets.
Demand Dynamics. NYC remains buoyed by global events and entertainment draws, while Anaheim/D.C. slump due to lost conventions and weaker gov’t travel.
Asset Strategies. Operators in lagging markets should re-time OPEX, redeploy staff for cost savings, and lean on group concessions to stabilize midweek.
Capital Markets. Credit committees will discount NOI growth, capping leverage. Expect lenders to differentiate sharply by market, stretching only in NYC or other high-demand hubs.
National RevPAR softness confirms plateau.
NYC remains a clear outperformer; Anaheim/D.C. caution warranted.
Underwriting shifts to flat growth assumptions.
Lenders favor prime markets; spreads sticky elsewhere.
🛠 Operator’s Lens
Refi. Fixed-rate debt favored as NOI forecasts flatten.
Value-Add. Group sales and concessions key in weaker markets.
Development. Conservative pro formas—occupancy stabilization in mid-60s.
Lender POV. Committees will haircut NOI and tighten DSCR on non-core markets.
STR expects modest lift from fall conference season.
Markets like NYC, Chicago, SF may post temporary occupancy gains.
Risk: if ADR slips nationally, the slowdown sharpens; watch next two STR weekly updates closely.
Construction Review Online — JPMorgan Funds Four Seasons Telluride Loan (Sept 2025). Federal Reserve — 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (Sep 2025). Aspen Times — Colorado Resorts See Spring Occupancy Declines (May 2025).
