🚨Manhattan’s casino race is over. On Sept. 22, the Community Advisory Committee voted 4–2 against Mohegan and Soloviev’s $11 billion “Freedom Plaza,” effectively killing the borough’s last live bid. Combined with rejections of Caesars’ Times Square plan and the Hudson Yards “Avenir,” Manhattan is out of contention for New York’s three downstate casino licenses. This redirects capital and projected billions in tax revenue toward outer boroughs and Yonkers. For CRE, that means no Manhattan casino-driven upside in hotel, retail, or construction demand — but potential uplift for Queens, Bronx, and Brooklyn assets tied to surviving proposals.
Freedom Plaza (Manhattan): $11 billion mixed-use casino plan — rejected Sept. 22 CAC vote (4–2)
Manhattan proposals rejected: 3 of 3 bids denied by CAC panels in Sept. 2025
Remaining contenders: 5 bids in Bronx, Brooklyn, Queens, and Yonkers still active (CAC votes due by Sept. 30)
Loan Performance. No incremental casino-driven demand to boost Manhattan DSCRs. Hospitality underwriting remains tied to existing Broadway, corporate, and tourism flows. Outer-borough upside scenarios now justify modest NOI stress-test increases.
Demand Dynamics. Manhattan retail and hotels won’t see casino foot traffic; stability prevails. Queens/Yonkers lodging and F&B assets may see elevated absorption if licenses are awarded.
Asset Strategies. Manhattan developers must pivot to community-prioritized uses (parks, housing). Outer-borough landlords near Citi Field, Coney Island, or Yonkers can prep for higher TI/LC leverage tied to casino-adjacent tenants.
Capital Markets. Manhattan entitlement risk premium rises. Investors re-price mega-projects with higher political friction. Capital reallocates toward “shovel-ready” casino expansions in Queens/Yonkers, where approval odds are higher.
Manhattan out of casino race; no gaming revenue uplift.
Queens/Yonkers positioned as regional gaming hubs.
Financing stable in Manhattan; no casino-driven absorption.
Capital shifts outer-borough; higher political risk priced into Manhattan.
🛠 Operator’s Lens
Refi. Manhattan hospitality loans refinance without gaming uplift — stable, not growth-driven.
Value-Add. Outer-borough properties can underwrite upside if near live bids; add contingency for community costs.
Development. Manhattan projects face heightened entitlement risk; structure pro formas with larger reserves.
Lender POV. Banks now treat Manhattan “casino-type” uses as politically unbankable. More favorable stance on existing racetrack sites in Queens and Yonkers.
CAC votes for Bronx, Brooklyn, Queens, and Yonkers due by Sept. 30 — likely to decide final license winners.
Manhattan developers may pivot to housing- or community-first alternatives for rejected casino sites.
Outer-borough properties (esp. near Citi Field and Yonkers) could see repricing ahead of final license awards.
CNBC
