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Newmark’s latest report shows a marked increase in CRE loan origination for Q3 2025, reversing a multi-quarter slowdown. Institutional lenders drove the jump, with banks and life companies expanding allocations as spreads narrowed. The report signals renewed lender confidence and heightened competition for prime assets.
📊 Quick Dive
Q3 origination volume rose 11% quarter-over-quarter, per Newmark.
Average loan-to-value ratios climbed to 64% from 60% last quarter.
Life companies’ share of originations reached 23%, up from 18%.
Average loan spread tightened by 24 bps to 211 bps (Newmark). Read Full Signal
Commercial Lending Volume Firms Nationally, But Regional Patterns Diverge
Commercial lending activity stabilized across the U.S. in Q3 2025, according to new data. National loan volume edged up 5.7% quarter-over-quarter, but regional disparities were clear. The Sunbelt posted a 13% increase in originations, while the Midwest saw a 2% decline. CMBS issuance rebounded 8% year-over-year, signaling capital markets’ growing risk appetite. Divergent regional trends highlight the importance of local fundamentals in lender strategies. Read Full Signal
SoftBank Group Q3 Profit Doubles Amid OpenAI-Related Investment Gains
SoftBank Group reported Q3 2025 net profit of ¥1.45 trillion ($9.6 billion), up 108% year-over-year, driven by investment gains tied to generative AI, including OpenAI-linked holdings. The Vision Fund segment posted a ¥520 billion gain, reversing prior losses. This performance underscores the increasing influence of AI-related capital flows on global financial markets, with potential downstream effects on real estate capital allocation. Read Full Signal
Rising loan origination activity marks a turning point for CRE finance, but discipline remains paramount. Lenders and borrowers should scrutinize underwriting standards amid tightening spreads and higher LTVs. Regional lending disparities reinforce the need for hyper-local market intelligence—operators in the Sunbelt may find expanded options, while Midwest borrowers may face tighter conditions.
Institutional capital’s renewed appetite—especially from life companies—suggests competition will increase for stabilized assets. Sponsors should lock in financing while terms are favorable, but remain vigilant on debt service coverage ratios as rates and valuations evolve.
Monitor Q4 origination data for confirmation of a sustained lending rebound.
Watch for further tightening or loosening of loan spreads as market competition evolves.
Track CMBS issuance for signals of risk tolerance among capital market lenders.
Pay close attention to regional trends, especially in lagging Midwest markets.
Follow institutional capital flows, particularly into AI-adjacent and tech-enabled CRE assets.
