• Newmark's Q3 2025 mortgage origination volume increased, aligning with selective lender re-engagement.
• Overall CRE transaction volumes fell YoY, per MSCI Real Assets data.
• Industrial and data centers saw heightened lending activity, contrasting with limited flows in office and retail.
• Divergent capital behavior underscores selective risk tolerance among lenders, influencing deal flow.

Newmark’s recent report reveals a noteworthy increase in their loan origination volumes for Q3 2025, driven by selective lender re-engagement. While banks and debt funds have participated in new deals, this uptick contrasts sharply with a broader downturn in commercial real estate (CRE) transaction volumes. The MSCI Real Assets data indicates a year-over-year decline in sales dollar volume as of September 2025, highlighting the mixed nature of the current capital markets.

The origination increase at Newmark signals a targeted re-entry of certain lenders into the market. This behavior stems from a measured risk appetite, particularly in asset classes with stable fundamentals such as industrial and data centers. Conversely, sectors like office and retail are experiencing limited capital flow, suggesting a bifurcated market landscape. Such selective engagement points to a nuanced understanding among lenders regarding asset performance and market conditions.

The divergence between Newmark's origination success and national transaction volume trends highlights critical considerations for underwriting and lending teams. As capital availability continues to shift, understanding lender behavior and the evolving risk landscape is paramount. The selective nature of deal flows suggests that lenders are prioritizing assets that exhibit resilient fundamentals, thereby influencing how debt capital is allocated across various asset classes.

Going forward, the broader implications of these trends may hinge on macroeconomic factors and policy shifts. If liquidity conditions stabilize, more lenders could re-enter the market, potentially enhancing capital flows across all sectors. However, the current mixed signals necessitate a cautious approach to forecasting future origination volumes and transaction activity within the capital markets.

Capital discipline is increasingly tied to selective engagement in a mixed market.