🚨Investcorp has closed a $1.0 billion refinancing—led by Morgan Stanley—covering 128 industrial properties totaling roughly 14 million sq. ft. across the U.S. The deal underscores sustained lender confidence in logistics assets, even as market metrics soften slightly. Industrial vacancy ticked up to ~4.4% in Q3 2025, while rents plateaued, but cash flow stability kept credit spreads tight and cap rates steady near 7.2%. For CRE debt markets, the transaction confirms that well-leased warehouse portfolios remain the most financeable collateral class.
Investcorp portfolio refinance: $1.0 billion loan, 128 properties / 14.1 MSF
U.S. industrial vacancy: 4.4%, up ~10% YoY (Q3 2025)
Q3 new industrial supply: 64 MSF delivered.
Average industrial cap rate: 7.2%, steady QoQ
Loan Performance. Strong occupancy (>95%) and diversified tenancy support DSCR stability; most portfolios underwrite comfortably above 1.5× even at 6%+ rates.
Demand Dynamics. Leasing volume dipped 3.2% YoY, but absorption remains positive; Class B infill sites retain pricing power, while large speculative boxes face modest concessions.
Asset Strategies. Owners prioritize renewal retention over rent growth, re-striping TI/LC budgets and reserving $0.15–$0.20/SF for CapEx to keep older stock competitive.
Capital Markets. Core logistics portfolios command 60–65% LTV with I/O structures; BBB– CMBS spreads near 280–300 bps support refinancing activity.
Industrial credit still trades inside other CRE sectors.
Infill logistics and credit-tenant warehouses favored.
Financing readily available for stabilized cash flow.
Watch cap-rate drift if long-rates stay elevated.
🛠 Operator’s Lens
Refi. Lock early; lenders offering partial I/O on diversified portfolios with DSCR > 1.4×.
Value-Add. Underwrite ≤3% rent growth, include rollover CapEx reserves.
Development. Slow speculative starts; pre-lease ≥ 50% before funding.
Lender POV. Banks and conduits differentiate sharply by tenant credit; Class A infill still attracts tightest spreads.
Expect continued bifurcation: prime credit portfolios access capital efficiently, while secondary assets face pricing friction. Monitor 10-year yields—further Fed easing in Q4 2025 could compress industrial cap rates below 7%. A rebound in e-commerce or on-shoring announcements could re-accelerate demand into 2026.
Bisnow — Investcorp Locks In $1B Refi for 14 Million SF Industrial Portfolio (Oct 9 2025). https://www.bisnow.com CRE Daily — Industrial Market Update Q3 2025. https://www.credaily.com
