📢Good morning,

CPI rose 0.4% MoM / 2.9% YoY in August. Core increased 0.3% MoM / 3.1% YoY. Despite the upside, futures imply a 25 bps cut at the September FOMC as labor softens.

📊 Quick Dive
• CPI: +0.4% MoM, largest monthly gain since January; core +0.3%.
• Jobless claims rose to 263k, near a four-year high, reinforcing easing bias.
• Markets still price a quarter-point cut next week.

Mortgage Rates Slide to 11-Month Low; Refis Jump, Purchases Tick Up
The MBA 30-yr fixed average fell to 6.49% (−15 bps WoW). Mortgage applications rose 9.2% WoW, with refis +12.2% and purchases +6.6%—a rate-sensitive rebound as markets price near-term easing into Q4. Early stability, not a demand surge.

Oil Slips on Weak U.S. Demand Signals—A Small Tailwind for Logistics Opex
Brent hovered near $67 and WTI near $63 as EIA data showed a +3.9M bbl crude build and gasoline stocks rose, pointing to softer demand. OPEC+ supply increases planned for October reinforce oversupply risk. Lower fuel costs modestly ease transportation and some construction inputs but can also flag slower goods demand for 3PLs.

NYCB’s New Chair Pivots Toward Lower CRE Exposure After Losses
NYCB’s executive chair Alessandro DiNello signaled plans to reduce CRE exposure, including potential loan sales or runoff, after write-offs and rating pressure. Theme holds: regionals stay selective on office and transitional loans; private credit and insurers continue to take share in bridge/mezz at higher coupons and tighter structures.

Gold Near Records on Soft Data—Another Signal of Lower-Rate Bet
Spot gold traded near $3,637/oz, reflecting weak U.S. data and stronger Fed-cut expectations. Duration and risk-parity positioning remain favored. For CRE, lower rates help term debt costs, but the gold bid also signals caution on growth and keeps underwriting discipline in focus.

Funding costs should ease at the headline level, but spreads and structure will drive outcomes. Priority: re-price live loans after the FOMC, lock opportunistically, and keep exit-cap stress intact given tariff pass-through risk. In debt markets, expect private credit to keep filling regional-bank gaps with tighter covenants and higher fees.

For operators, use rate relief to stabilize cash flow, not to stretch rent or leverage. Industrial and logistics models can trim fuel line-items modestly; do not loosen development contingencies.