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The Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25 points to a 3.75–4.00% target range — its second reduction in two months and 150 bps over the past year. The move briefly pushed the 10-year Treasury below 4%, spurring a rush of refi activity and CRE sales that hit $42 B in September (+19% YoY). Private credit and CMBS issuance are surging as borrowers seize a rare window to lock debt.
📊 Quick Dive
Mortgage rate: 30-year fixed fell to 6.17%, a 13-month low (Freddie Mac).
CRE sales: $42 B in Sept., +19% YoY; office sales +42% since mid-year (CRE360).
Private credit: $35.9 B Q3 inflows to Blackstone Credit; non-bank loan share rising 8 ppt.
CMBS/CLO: $127.5 B YTD issuance (+39% YoY); AAA spreads ≈ +80 bps over Treasuries. Read Full Signal
Multifamily Lending Rebounds as Rate Cuts Bite
The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts $827 B in CRE originations for 2025, up 24% YoY, with multifamily loans growing +16% to $417 B. Agency lenders (Fannie & Freddie) will supply over 40% of liquidity. National vacancy rose slightly to 4.4%, but cap rates compressed to 5.62% in Q3 as buyers return. NCREIF reports +1.44% total return for apartments in Q3, marking a third straight quarter of gains. Refi risk is contained as bank multifamily delinquencies hover near 1.4%. Borrowers are locking fixed-rate debt before the window closes. Read Full Signal
Manhattan Capital Flows Accelerate as Big-Ticket Deals Retur
New York posted its strongest quarter since 2022 with $4.9 B in Q3 commercial sales, up 54% YoY and nearly triple Q2 volume. RXR and Elliott paid $1.1 B for 590 Madison Ave — the largest office deal in three years — while Norges and Beacon bought 1177 Sixth Ave for $572 M. Foreign office investment jumped sixfold to $877 M, mostly in Manhattan and San Francisco trophy assets. Older Class B/C buildings now trade at ≈ 57% discounts from pre-COVID values, signaling a pricing reset that’s drawing opportunistic capital. Read Full Signal
Operators should treat this moment as a controlled window for execution, not expansion. Rate relief and liquidity are real but finite. Lock fixed debt now while the 10-year hovers near 4%. Maintain underwriting discipline — stress cap rates +50–75 bps above market and keep LTVs ≤ 65%. Private credit funds offer speed, but their pricing is already tightening; secure term sheets before Q4 competition intensifies. For borrowers with 2025 maturities, extend or refi by year-end while lenders remain active. Quality and execution will define winners as the cycle transitions from defensive to selective growth. Read Full Signal
Fed policy pause likely through December; futures price ≈ 40% chance of another cut.
CRE originations on pace for $827 B in 2025 — monitor loan pricing trends into Q1.
Expect continued cap-rate stability around 6.4% nationally.
Office-to-residential conversion policy momentum in NYC and SF could reshape supply.
Watch CMBS/CLO spreads (+80 / +475 bps) for early signs of credit tightening.
