The renter’s market has arrived. National asking rents declined again in September, pulling the median to $1,394, down 0.8% YoY, as vacancy climbed to 7.1%, a series high. The catalyst is not demand collapse but supply cadence: completions from the 2022–24 start surge are still coming to market, forcing operators to trade price for occupancy. Credit conditions are now the amplifier—lenders are rewarding cash flow durability over pro-forma growth.

“We’ve shifted from maximizing rent to maximizing occupancy,” a Dallas leasing director told us during a morning huddle—two months free is back in the script.

U.S. multifamily delivered ~608k units in 2024, the most since 1986, and 2025 remains heavy. Inventory growth is concentrated in Class A and Sunbelt submarkets, where lease-ups face the fiercest competition. Meanwhile, household formation has cooled alongside a softer labor tape. As a result, absorption is positive but insufficient to clear the pipeline. In turn, operators are leaning on targeted concessions rather than deeper face-rent cuts to hold street rents.

Apartment List reports –0.4% MoM and –0.8% YoY national rent prints for September, with more than half of large metros showing monthly declines. Seasonal slowdown will extend the pattern into Q4. Still, pricing weakness is uneven: Class B/C suburban assets with value positioning are defending occupancy better than downtown luxury towers, where choice is abundant and lease-up timelines stretch. On balance, effective rents are falling faster than asks where concessions stack (e.g., six weeks free equates to ~11.5% effective discount on a 12-month term).

On the debt side, CMBS multifamily delinquencies hit 6.59% in September, nearly double year-ago levels; special-servicing has also drifted up. The pain skews to bridge and value-add business plans maturing into lower rents, higher opex, and tighter proceeds. Meanwhile, 2020–21 vintages face refinance tests as rate caps expire. Lenders are prioritizing >1.25× DSCR on in-place NOI and sizing to ~65% LTV or >8% debt yield, with agencies offering the most reliable execution—especially for affordability components. Nonetheless, selective life-co and bank capital remains available for durable cash flow.

Operations: execution edge

Concessions are now a core revenue-management tool: the share of listings with incentives climbed to ~37%, a record, as landlords preserve headline rents while competing on total cost of occupancy. In practice, the winners are tightening lead-to-lease funnels, accelerating service response, and budgeting to 91–95% occupancy through winter. Ultimately, retention beats remarketing spend when lead volume thins.

For now, expect flat to –2% effective rent growth through mid-2026 in supply-heavy metros, with stabilization as starts slow and completions fade. Vacancy likely peaks in the 7–8% range before easing as the pipeline clears. The Fed’s recent cuts help at the margin, but underwriting should assume today’s coupons and proceeds. Transactions will cluster where seller motivation meets buyer discipline: clean capital stacks, resilient submarkets, and going-in yields ≥5% in secondaries. Developers face a tighter spigot; that scarcity is tomorrow’s tailwind for stabilized owners. On balance, this phase rewards occupancy retention, expense control, and DSCR-first capital structure.