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The Signal: Blackstone is selling roughly £1 billion ($1.3 billion) in U.K. logistics assets — 41 properties — to Tritax Big Box REIT, taking a 9% equity stake plus £632 million in cash. The move marks a strategic shift toward structured exposure over full ownership. Simultaneously, Blackstone confirmed it’s exploring a bid for Big Yellow Group, the £1.9 billion self-storage REIT whose shares jumped 22% on the news.
đź“Š Quick Dive:
£1 B warehouse sale highlights repricing under 5%+ U.K. base rates — creative liquidity via REIT stake instead of debt.
Sector resilience: Logistics and self-storage remain institutional favorites amid valuation resets.
Consolidation wave: Even large portfolios are trading at adjusted cap rates as owners seek equity liquidity.
Read the full Signal
Julius Baer Hit by German Developer Collapse, Faces €48 M Loss
Swiss private bank Julius Baer is writing off €48 million tied to Germany’s insolvent Degag Group, exceeding its 2023 German profits. The failure follows last year’s CHF 586 million Signa loss, pushing the bank to tighten lending. Analysts call this a warning for all lenders exposed to leveraged European developers: credit is shrinking, and high-rate refinancing walls loom through 2026 Read Full Signal →
Goldman Sachs Grapples with Banker Exodus as Deal Volume Slumps
More than a dozen senior dealmakers have exited Goldman Sachs amid a two-decade-low in global M&A activity — just 8,900 deals in Q3, even as mega-deal volume hit $1.26 trillion, up 40% YoY. Despite the talent churn, Goldman remains No. 1 in advisory fees, helped by mandates like EA’s $55 B sale and Holcim’s $26 B spin-off. Analysts see parallels to CRE: capital is concentrating in fewer, larger transactions where quality trumps quantity Read Full Signal →
U.S. Growth Upgraded — but Inflation Stays Sticky
The NABE raised its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.8% (from 1.3%) on surging business investment, while PCE inflation is seen near 3.0% into 2026. Job growth, however, is fading to roughly 29,000 per month, and housing investment will likely contract 1.6%. Economists expect only one more Fed rate cut this year, reinforcing the “higher-for-longer” base case for CRE underwriting. Read Full Signal →
Country Garden Wins $1.14 B Lifeline Amid China’s Property Crisis
China’s Country Garden will convert $1.14 billion in shareholder loans into equity to push through a restructuring that cuts offshore debt by 78%, leaving creditors with roughly 22¢ on the dollar. September sales plunged 29% YoY, underscoring China’s housing slump. Creditors vote November 5; failure could trigger a January 2026 liquidation hearing. The case illustrates leverage risk and waning global confidence in Chinese developers Read Full Signal →
Institutional capital is pivoting, not retreating. Blackstone’s warehouse-for-equity trade and Big Yellow interest show how sophisticated players are re-engineering liquidity in a high-rate world. The underwriting takeaway: build flexibility — consider JV stakes, equity swaps, and conservative leverage as viable capital-stack tools.
At the same time, the credit accidents in Europe (Degag, Signa) and China’s deleveraging underscore that debt discipline is non-negotiable. For U.S. operators, “higher-for-longer” means no shortcuts — underwrite with today’s costs, hold optionality for longer exits, and prioritize resilient income streams over speculative rent growth. Tech adoption (like Realmo’s AI) can enhance sourcing efficiency, but fundamentals still rule.
M&A pulse: Watch whether Blackstone formalizes its Big Yellow bid — could trigger a wave of REIT consolidation.
Credit tightening: European lenders likely to keep retreating from development finance through year-end.
Macro watch: Next Fed meeting key — any hint of slower easing cements “higher-for-longer.”
China vote: Nov 5 Country Garden restructuring will set tone for Asia’s distressed-debt markets.
AI acceleration: Expect more PropTech launches and strategic acquisitions by major CRE data firms.
