For the first time since 2022, U.S. commercial property prices have logged two consecutive months of YoY growth. July’s MSCI CPPI data shows national pricing edging up across multiple sectors, even while fundamentals remain mixed. This marks a tentative shift in market psychology: from falling values to early signs of stabilization.
📌 Key Highlights (MSCI CPPI, July 2025)
National All-Property CPPI: +0.9% YoY in July; +0.6% MoM; +1.2% over the past 3 months.
Industrial: +0.7% MoM, +3.4% YoY; +46% over 5 years.
Office (all): +0.8% MoM, +2.3% YoY, but −21.7% over 3 years.
CBD offices: −47% over 3 years.
Suburban offices: −17.6% over 3 years.
Retail: +0.3% MoM; +4.2% YoY.
Multifamily: Flat MoM; +0.4% YoY; −19% over 3 years.
3-year National All-Property trend: −11.2%.
1. Pricing Dynamics
National pricing is now firming modestly, led by industrial and select retail. The CPPI’s YoY growth (+0.9%) may look small, but after nearly two years of steady declines, it signals a critical inflection. Still, the 3-year trend remains negative (−11.2%), underscoring that the market is not out of correction territory.
2. Industrial & Retail Strength
Industrial (+3.4% YoY) continues to lead, supported by logistics demand and constrained modern supply in core nodes. Retail’s +4.2% YoY growth shows surprising resilience — especially grocery-anchored centers and experiential formats that have weathered the e-commerce shift. These two sectors are now anchoring CPPI stability.
3. Office Bifurcation
While office posted +2.3% YoY in July, the longer-term picture is stark: CBD offices have lost ~47% of value in three years, compared to −17.6% for suburban. This divergence is widening. Capital is punishing obsolete towers while still supporting high-quality suburban campuses and mixed-use projects with strong tenancy.
4. Multifamily in Transition
Multifamily was nearly flat (+0.4% YoY). The sector is stabilizing after supply pressure, but pricing is still down ~19% over three years. Pipeline declines (RealPage July data) may set up firmer rents by 2026, but in today’s trades, underwriting still reflects thin rent growth and high capex needs.
If I’m at the table today, I read this as early stabilization, not recovery. Sellers will use July CPPI prints to hold firmer on price, especially in industrial and retail. Buyers should focus on relative winners (industrial, resilient retail, quality suburban office) while demanding discounts for lagging segments. Multifamily remains a waiting game — price discipline now for rent power later.
📈 Read-Through
Industrial & retail = current leaders → comps will be stickier.
Office split is widening → suburban wins, CBD towers remain distressed.
Multifamily flat → no real pricing momentum until 2026 pipeline clears.
National prices up 2 months running → sellers lean on this to resist discounts.
Q3 watch: Can CPPI sustain three straight YoY gains, or does mixed sector performance break the streak?
Sector spread: Industrial & retail likely to outpace; office to remain bifurcated.
Cap rate vs. CPPI: Watch if cap rate stability (per Northmarq data) aligns with CPPI gains.
Cross-border flows: Global capital may re-enter faster if CPPI shows consistent stabilization.
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