📢Good morning — today’s Signals are brought to you by CRE360 Signal™.
National average asking rent fell to $1,712 in September, down 0.3% from August, marking the steepest September decline in more than 15 years. All regions posted monthly declines, with the West leading at −0.5% and the South at −0.4%. Annual growth cooled to +0.9% year-over-year as oversupplied Sunbelt/Mountain markets weighed on the index.
📊 Quick Dive
Midwest (+2.4% YoY) and Northeast (+1.9%) remained positive; the West turned negative (−1.3% YoY).
Only two large metros eked out MoM gains (Milwaukee +0.1%, Cleveland +0.02%); Denver (−1.3%) and Raleigh (−1.2%) led declines.
Bifurcation widened: supply-constrained SF (+6.1% YoY) and San Jose (+3.8%) outperformed; Austin (−4.4%) and Denver (−3.8%) lagged.
[Read Full Signal → link]
Read the full Signal
Office CMBS Delinquencies Jump to 8.1% on Manhattan Default
The 60+ day office delinquency rate surged to 8.12% in September (from 7.70% in August), the largest monthly rise of 2025. A $180M maturity default at 261 Fifth Ave. accounted for ~40% of the spike, helping push total new 60-day delinquent CRE loans to ~$2.05B, with ~$1.02B from office alone. Secondary markets are participating, too—Hartford’s CityPlace I ($79M) also moved into distress. Overall CMBS delinquency hit 3.1%, underscoring office as the outlier. Read Full Signal →
NYC Rent-Stabilized Portfolio Faces Foreclosure on $165M Loan
A&E Real Estate is facing foreclosure on a 1,268-unit Queens portfolio after missed interest and tax payments. The loan—part of the post-Signature Bank “toxic” rent-stabilized book—now shows ~$9.8M principal and ~$3M interest past due, plus $1.7M in unpaid tax escrows and $5M in water/sewer. Since 2024, ~500 pre-foreclosure actions have hit ~25,000 regulated apartments (~$4.8B in debt), a sector-wide strain driven by 2019 rent reforms and rising expenses. Read Full Signal →
Trophy NYC Offices Still Bankable: $1.45B and $507M Refis Close
Debt is available—but selective—for best-in-class towers. RXR recapitalized 1211 Avenue of the Americas (~2.0M SF) with a $1.45B package to fund upgrades. Separately, 11 Times Square secured a $507M refi via a JPMorgan/Wells-led syndicate, with ~$42.8M fresh equity and ~$43M reserves. Execution confirms lenders are “creaming” the market: lower leverage, higher rates, multi-lender clubs for blue-chip assets; weaker offices remain stuck. Read Full Signal →
Fed’s Dovish Tilt Eases Yields, Offers CRE a Window
Chair Powell signaled QT “may be coming into view” to end, helping pull the 10-year Treasury toward ~4.0% while the 2-year slipped to ~4.6%. Markets price gradual cuts into 2026; spreads remain cautious, so not all base-rate relief flows through to borrowers yet. For CRE, rate locks and refi prep are back on the table as financing math improves at the margin. Read Full Signal →
Operators and underwriters should assume a renter’s market through the next few quarters in supply-heavy metros. Reforecast 2025 rents sub-2% nationally—with outright declines in oversupplied Sunbelt/Mountain submarkets—and budget higher concessions for older product. In office, capital is bifurcated: trophy assets with strong sponsors can secure refis—at lower LTVs and with real equity checks—while commodity assets should plan for extensions, workouts, or conversions. Use the current Treasury dip to lock terms where feasible, but keep spread buffers and robust TI/LC reserves.
Multifamily: Peak deliveries Q4’25–Q1’26; occupancy and concessions remain under pressure near-term.
Office Credit: Delinquencies likely grind higher into 2026 as the maturity wall meets tighter proceeds.
Rates: Baseline for 10Y in 3.5–4.0% band if data cooperates; spreads normalize slowly.
Capital Flows: Expect selective re-risking—lifecos and banks nibble prime, debt funds fill gaps; private credit remains competitive.
