The U.S. office market is exhibiting a two-speed dynamic, highlighted by the 0.6% increase in the Value-Weighted Office Index in Q3 2025. This contrasts with a 4% year-over-year decline in leasing volume and a steady national vacancy rate of 19.8%. These mixed signals reflect underlying tensions in asset quality and tenant demand, particularly across diverse metropolitan landscapes.

The Value-Weighted Index, which prioritizes larger, institutional-quality transactions, demonstrates resilience, rising by 0.6% in Q3 2025. Conversely, the Equal-Weighted Index remained flat, indicating stagnation among smaller assets. This divergence suggests that while institutional capital seeks quality, the broader market struggles with weaker demand. The preference for larger deals reinforces a flight to quality in capital flows.

The national office vacancy rate remained stable at 19.8%, with gateway markets such as New York City and San Francisco continuing to report vacancies exceeding 20%. This stability in vacancy rates, despite elevated availability, indicates a critical threshold for landlords and investors alike. However, the persistence of high vacancies raises concerns about the long-term absorption of space in these markets.

The increased sublease availability, which now accounts for over 18% of total vacancy, indicates ongoing tenant downsizing and space optimization efforts. This trend poses challenges for landlords, as it reflects a shift in occupier demand and could lead to further downward pressure on rental rates in less resilient submarkets. The implications for credit risk and underwriting practices are significant, particularly for properties in secondary locations.

The bifurcation between institutional and broader market indices highlights a cautious approach from capital markets. Investors are increasingly favoring prime, stabilized assets, while secondary and value-add properties face wider bid-ask spreads. This trend suggests that private capital and smaller owners may encounter liquidity constraints and heightened exposure to leasing volatility. The current environment calls for careful scrutiny of rent rolls and sponsor depth, especially for lenders and investors assessing risk.

If the current trends persist, the two-speed office market could lead to further segmentation in asset performance. Institutions may continue to dominate capital flows into high-quality assets, while private owners in less desirable metros face challenges. Elevated vacancy rates and a backlog of sublease inventory signal a need for adaptive strategies in leasing and investment.