Florida’s hotels are absorbing a national slowdown almost effortlessly. Occupancy statewide hovered in the mid-70s % in Q3 2025—well above the U.S. norm—thanks to relentless leisure travel and minimal new supply. Even as RevPAR dipped 1.4% YoY, operators resisted discounting, holding ADR near record highs. The signal: discipline is back in hospitality pricing. Investors are reading this as resilience, not complacency—particularly in Florida, where population inflows and leisure patterns create structural demand stability.

Resort corridors from Naples to Key West ran weekend occupancies above 90%, while urban hotels lost a few mid-week points. The split underscores a broader national pattern: “bleisure” demand has become the main profit engine. Florida’s leisure-first profile shields it from the business-travel drag that still hits northern metros. On balance, stable occupancy with flat ADR implies yield protection rather than growth—good news for lenders testing refinance covenants.

Operating costs remain the hidden variable. Labor expenses are 5–8% higher than 2019, and brand-mandated property improvement plans are landing just as revenue growth flattens. Insurance premiums have climbed double digits amid hurricane risk, compressing GOP margins. Still, owners completing PIPs and tech upgrades are outperforming laggards. A Largo Capital analyst put it plainly: “Capex fatigue is real—but the refreshed hotels are the ones winning share.” Efficiency—not occupancy—is now the competitive edge.

Roughly $27 B in hospitality loans closed in H1 2025, mostly through debt funds and bridge lenders. Traditional banks are active only on flagged, stabilized assets at 55–60% LTV, often demanding 6–12 months of interest reserve. Cap rates for premier Florida resorts have compressed toward the low-7 % range, while typical select-service trades in the high-8s %. The pricing gap between quality and commodity assets is widening—a mirror of the office sector’s “flight to quality.” For now, private capital is writing the checks that banks won’t.

With $114 B in hotel debt maturing by 2027, many owners will face a capital-structure reckoning. Those with post-COVID bridge loans and stabilized performance can refi—albeit at lower proceeds and higher coupons. Others may opt to sell rather than inject equity. Expect transaction volume to lift in 2025-26 as recapitalizations accelerate. Florida’s high occupancy and limited new supply make it the prime candidate for liquidity; distressed trades will likely be value-driven, not systemic.

Consumer headwinds haven’t dented travel budgets yet. Florida’s tourism pipeline—from expanded airports to new attractions—supports sustained visitation even in slower growth years. Group travel recovery lags but is improving: bookings at the Orange County and Miami Beach convention centers are pacing higher for 2026-27. The macro risk lies more in insurance and storm exposure than in consumer demand. Nonetheless, history shows Florida tourism rebounds fast post-event—demand merely shifts zip codes.

CRE lenders and owners should expect flat-to-modest RevPAR growth (0–2%) through 2026, with leisure destinations holding steady and urban hotels catching up by 2027. The refinancing cycle will re-price assets but not erase value: Florida’s fundamentals—population inflow, lifestyle migration, and limited new construction—anchor performance. Operators that complete upgrades and manage labor efficiency will maintain NOI even if top-line growth pauses. By 2028, international travel could restore a full demand cycle.