➤ Key Highlights
Bright MLS expects the U.S. housing market to enter a transitional period in 2026.
Average mortgage rates are projected to stay above 6% next year.
Existing-home sales are forecast to climb 9% to 4.51 million.
Inventory is projected to rise nearly 11% by year’s end, reaching about 1.426 million homes for sale.
The median home price is expected to hit roughly $417,560, a 0.9% increase.
Some parts of the country will see declining prices, particularly markets where supply has grown quickly.
Price growth is expected to be stronger in supply-challenged markets across the Midwest and Northwest.
Bright MLS released its annual forecast, projecting that the U.S. housing market will experience a transitional period in 2026. The forecast includes expectations for higher inventory, modest price growth, and mortgage rates remaining above 6%. Regional variations in pricing are anticipated, with some markets seeing declines where supply rises quickly.
The event reflects a transitional phase in residential demand shaped by evolving absorption and buyer behavior patterns. As market conditions shift, participants may encounter new forms of demand and buying interest that differ from previous cycles. This period is characterized by a recalibration of expectations and activity, rather than a straightforward rebound. Understanding how demand adapts to changing supply, pricing, and financing conditions is central to navigating this environment.
⚠️ Why it matters now
For CRE360’s audience, a demand recalibration phase means that planning, underwriting, and strategy must account for less predictable patterns in buyer activity. Developers, capital providers, construction firms, and operators need to recognize the potential for shifting expectations and absorption rates. The lens of evolving demand patterns is essential for anticipating how projects and investments may perform in a market that is not following prior rebound trajectories.
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➤ TAKEAWAY
Market participants may watch for further signals of how buyers respond to increased inventory and stable but elevated mortgage rates. Absorption and sentiment patterns could continue to evolve as the transitional period unfolds. Stakeholders will likely monitor for signs of stabilization in demand patterns before making significant adjustments to their approaches.
