📢Good morning — today’s Signals are brought to you by CRE360 Signal™.
Attorneys general from D.C., MD, NJ, and KY urged a federal judge to reject a proposed $141–$142M class settlement tied to alleged rent-price fixing via RealPage, warning it could undercut their own suits and enforcement plans.
📊 Quick Dive
27 landlords have settled for ~$142M; Greystar’s share is $50M (≈35% of total).
D.C.’s case is first to trial (March 2027), keeping a long legal clock over rent-setting practices.
Companies named in suits manage ~12% of U.S. apartments, and ~70% of units delivered since 2020. Read Full Signal
Multifamily Rent Growth Stalls Amid Oversupply
U.S. apartment asking rents fell 0.3% in September to $1,712 — steepest September decline in 15+ years; annual growth slowed to +0.9%. Vacancy is ~6.5–7.0% as peak deliveries overpower demand, with concessions widespread. Sunbelt and Mountain West lag (Austin –4.4% YoY; Denver –3.8%), while San Francisco (+6.1%) and Chicago (+3.8%) outperformed. Lenders remain cautious; all-in loan rates ~6.0–6.5% and spreads elevated. Underwrite 0–2% rent growth through 2026 and higher economic vacancy. Read Full Signal
Institutions Eye Re-Entry as Market Thaws
Institutional target allocations dipped to ~10.7%, but actual allocations trail targets by ~9.8% — signaling “dry powder” and intent to deploy as rate paths clarify. 64% rate CRE ≥6/10 on risk-adjusted opportunity, with insurers and pensions prepping late-’25/’26 acquisitions. Debt markets reopened (CRE originations +66% YoY in Q2 ’25), but equity is selective: lower leverage (50–60% LTV), core bias, heavier diligence. Position assets with conservative models, resilience/ESG capex, and wider exit caps. Read Full Signal
Office Delinquencies Spike; Credit Risk Reprices
Office CMBS 60+ day delinquency hit 8.12% in September; overall CRE CMBS at 3.1% (highest since 2018). Notable September events include maturity default at 261 Fifth Ave ($180M) and Hartford’s CityPlace I ($79M). Appraisals continue to reset down 30–40% from peaks; lenders sizing at 50–55% LTV, 1.5x DSCR stressed. Underwrite break-even occupancies in the 60–70% range, large TI/LC, and multi-year lease-up. Read Full Signal
Multifamily’s legal cloud plus flat rents means underwriting must assume no algorithmic pricing premium and organic growth only. Class A in overbuilt Sunbelt submarkets faces the twin squeeze of concessions and legal scrutiny; prioritize renewals and expense control over rate push.
Capital is thawing, but terms favor discipline: if you’re selling, ensure institutional-grade data rooms and ESG/resilience plans; if you’re buying, lock rate caps and size to >1.30x DSCR on today’s rents. In office, only pursue if you own a true edge (conversion path, municipal incentives, or best-in-class lease team) and can carry 5+ years.
RealPage litigation path: Watch the Tennessee ruling and any DOJ/state expansions; adjust rent forecasts within days if injunctions impact algorithms nationally.
Rates & spreads: With cuts starting, monitor all-in coupons and lender spreads; debt is available but selective — especially for office.
MF supply peak: 2025 likely apex deliveries; expect flat rents into early ’26, with re-acceleration possible in 2027 as pipeline shrinks.
Institutional deployment cadence: Prep for larger portfolio trades/recaps in ’26 as allocations normalize and core capital returns.
Office price discovery: More defaults/special servicing near-term; watch comps to benchmark true underwriting exits.
