🚨U.S. apartment rent growth has nearly vanished as record new supply floods the market. The average national rent declined by $6 in September to $1,750, bringing annual rent growth to just +0.6% — the weakest since 2009. Over the past year, roughly 474,800 new units were delivered, overwhelming demand and softening occupancy to 95.4% in Q3 (down from 95.7% in Q2). Concessions are back: 22% of apartments now offer discounts averaging 6%. For CRE investors, this marks a decisive shift to flat rent assumptions and tighter underwriting.
Average U.S. Apartment Rent: $1,750 (–$6 MoM, +0.6% YoY, Sep 2025) — [Source: Multifamily Dive].
National Apartment Deliveries: ~474,800 units (Q3 2024–Q3 2025) — [Source: Census Bureau].
Occupancy Rate: 95.4% (Q3 2025, –30 bps QoQ) — [Source: RealPage].
Concessions Offered: 22% of units (~6% avg discount) — [Source: RealPage].
Loan Performance. Flat to negative rent growth compresses DSCRs as expense inflation persists near 3–4%. Sponsors should target >1.25× coverage on in-place NOI; floating-rate borrowers may see cap stress without rent tailwinds.
Demand Dynamics. Household formation slowed and renters are doubling up. Renewal retention is rising, but at lower rent bumps (~1%). Midwest and coastal markets hold steadier while oversupplied Sun Belt metros post rent declines (–2% to –4% YoY).
Asset Strategies. Prioritize tenant retention over rate growth. Build renewal perks, flexible lease lengths, and short-term concessions into 2026 pro formas.
Capital Markets. Lenders underwrite 0–2% rent CAGR and 93–94% stabilized occupancy. Equity favoring core-plus assets with proven rent rolls; development debt requires conservative lease-up assumptions.
Record supply cycle caps rent growth near zero through 2026.
Sun Belt rents declining; coastal/Midwest markets more resilient.
Operators shift from pricing power to retention and expense control.
Underwriting stress: low rent growth, persistent concessions, slower lease-up.
🛠 Operator’s Lens
Refi. Model zero rent growth and verify DSCR ≥ 1.25× on in-place NOI; secure cap extensions early.
Value-Add. Focus capex on differentiation (amenities, interiors) not rent lifts; assume 8% effective rent loss from concessions.
Development. Lengthen absorption assumptions; stress-test at 93% stabilized occupancy.
Lender POV. Banks tighten to flat-rent underwriting; CMBS issuers discount pro formas with high concessions.
Deliveries to peak mid-2026 as units under construction (686k in Aug, –20% YoY) decline.
Watch quarterly absorption vs. completions; first sequential occupancy uptick will mark the inflection.
Upside risk: stronger job growth lifting household formation. Downside: prolonged demand softness or rising expenses.
Multifamily Dive — Apartment Rents Dip as Record Supply Floods Market (Oct 9 2025). https://www.multifamilydive.com RealPage — Q3 2025 Multifamily Performance Metrics. https://www.realpage.com CBRE — U.S. Multifamily Outlook 2025. https://www.cbre.com Census Bureau — Housing Completions and Permits Data (Q3 2025). https://www.census.gov
