🚨Leasing has stopped deteriorating and turned slightly positive in many markets in early 2025, pointing to stabilized occupancies for higher-quality assets. CBRE’s cap rate survey indicates the first modest improvement for lower-tier offices: the share trading at ≥10% cap rates edged down in H1 2025, implying risk premia may have peaked for parts of B/C stock. Investor expectations have shifted from uniformly bearish to “flat to modest compression,” which—if sustained—supports refinancing and selective bid-lists returning. For CRE financing, this reduces downside drift in valuations and can unlock conservative proceeds on stabilized, well-located assets.
B/C offices at ≥10% cap rate: 71% (H1 2025), down from 74% (H2 2024).
CBD office cap rate outlook (next 6–12 months): 68% expect flat; 16% expect declines.
U.S. office vacancy forecast peak ~21.6% in late 2025.
Positive net absorption returned in most major markets in early 2025.
Loan Performance. If cap rates have topped for B/C and stabilized for A, exit yield assumptions can flatten, improving DSCR trajectories on stabilized assets. For in-place fixed or hedged floating debt, modest NOI stabilization lifts debt yield, supporting extensions or lower-leverage refis. Caps/floors remain relevant for transitional assets until cash flow seasons.
Demand Dynamics. Flight-to-quality persists: Class A and amenities submarkets capture the bulk of expansions; B/C backfills clear at discounted effective rents with elevated TI/free rent. Sun Belt and select Midwest markets show firmer absorption versus gateway CBDs [Source: CBRE; Cushman & Wakefield].
Asset Strategies. For B/B+ assets, targeted “quality injections” (lobbies, amenities, spec suites) reduce downtime and increase renewal odds; assume higher TI/LC up front to accelerate lease-up. Weak NOI assets require either heavier repositioning or a pricing reset consistent with high-single/low-double-digit yields.
Capital Markets. Term sheets are re-appearing for prime assets at conservative LTVs; lender structure favors lower proceeds, tighter covenants, and reserves. CMBS/CLO tone improves first for higher-grade collateral; conduit risk tranches still price wide but are stabilizing alongside survey sentiment [Source: Trepp].
Rates/growth: Fundamentals are near a cyclical floor; stabilization replaces free-fall.
Favored assets: Trophy/A-minus in strong nodes; selective B/B+ with credible upgrade plans.
Financing stance: Conservative leverage, structure heavy, but more executable on stabilized cash flow.
Spreads caveat: Transitional B/C remains fragile; downside scenarios still required.
🛠 Operator’s Lens
Refi. Pursue extensions/refis on stabilized assets showing flat-to-improving occupancy; lock prepay flexibility and evaluate cap coverage through maturities.
Value-Add. Tie capex to signed demand: spec suites, amenity upgrades, and TI/LC tranching; hold 10–15% contingency.
Development. New-start risk remains high; run pro formas with flat rents and longer lease-up; align GC/FF&E timing to staged occupancy.
Lender POV. Banks and debt funds price tighter on stabilized A/A-minus; transitional B/C needs lower basis, stronger reserves, and business plans with credible leasing evidence.
Watch the next CBRE cap rate survey and quarterly absorption prints for confirmation of a bottom.
Monitor CMBS conduit BBB– spread direction as a risk sentiment proxy for office collatera.
Risks: macro slowdown, weaker office utilization, or stalled leasing would re-widen exit caps and compress proceeds.
September 28, 2025 (America/Chicago). CBRE; Cushman & Wakefield; Trepp; San Francisco Chronicle.
showing the share of B/C office properties with ≥10% cap rates declining from 74% in H2 2024 to 71% in H1 2025.
