🚨 Rates eased 15 bps week-over-week, reviving activity across refinance and purchase channels. Refi apps jumped 12.2%, while purchases rose 6.6%. The shift aligns with Fed cut expectations, setting up cheaper debt into Q4.

Loan Performance: Refi volumes confirm households are rate-sensitive. Early cures on higher-rate loans could accelerate, reducing extension risk. However, default pipelines remain unchanged until broader employment data stabilize.

Demand Dynamics: Purchase applications rising signals incremental stabilization in housing demand. Supply constraints remain, but affordability is easing slightly, allowing more households to re-enter the buyer pool. Multifamily demand could cool marginally if buyers shift back toward ownership.

Asset Strategies: Owners can reposition refi candidates earlier than expected. Developers should re-run condo and SFR-BTR absorption models, as marginal ownership demand could lift take-out velocity. Operators should calibrate leasing concessions as household mobility rises.

Capital Markets: CRE debt pricing should track this rate move with a lag. Agencies may quote 25–50 bps tighter spreads for top assets, but investors remain cautious. Loan-to-cost limits and DSCR floors will hold until the Fed decision is confirmed.

🛠 Operator’s Lens

🔭 The Fed meets next week with markets pricing a 25 bps cut, small odds of 50. A hotter CPI/PPI could trim cut odds, pressuring yields back toward 6.75–7.00%. CRE borrowers should expect bank and agency pass-through only after warehouse funding resets. Strategic timing of refis in the next 30–60 days is critical.