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Today’s Signals show two separate — but equally important — adoption trends shaping CRE heading into 2026:
Financing adoption: C-PACE is moving from niche to institutional.
Logistics adoption: Tenants are moving capacity toward the border to match freight flows.
Both are behavioral signals, not cyclical noise — and both influence underwriting, development strategy, and long-range capital positioning.
➤ SIGNAL
📌C-PACE Goes Institutional
C-PACE originations have increased fivefold since 2020, with transaction sizes rising and large sponsors entering the system.
Nuveen Green Capital reports nearly $1.5B in 2025 fundraising, and record-scale deals — like the $290M Pendry Hotel & Residences in Tampa — indicate that C-PACE has crossed the threshold from “alternative” to institutional financing mechanism.
Today, C-PACE operates in 30+ states plus D.C., and average deal size approaches $25M.
C-PACE is no longer a niche energy-efficiency tool.
It has become a structured capital instrument for large assets — especially hotels, mixed-use, and ESG-aligned redevelopments.
Why It Matters for CRE Operators
Structure, not sentiment, is shifting:
C-PACE now fills capital stack gaps for projects unable to pencil at traditional senior terms.
It aligns with ESG and tax-credit strategies sought by institutional allocators.
Lenders increasingly incorporate C-PACE as a stabilizing component rather than a complication.
The demand pattern is clear:
capital is adopting financing tools that align with policy trends, ESG screens, and rising cost of capital. Read Full Signal →
📌Logistics Moves South as Freight Volumes Rise
C.H. Robinson has expanded its El Paso footprint by 450,000 sq ft, pushing its border-adjacent logistics space above 2 million sq ft.
This expansion supports a new LTL consolidation service, and aligns with growing manufacturing activity in Chihuahua, now a hub for electronics and communications equipment.
The story isn’t one operator.
It’s a regional shift:
Werner operates cross-border terminals in El Paso and Laredo.
Ryder manages 21,000 cross-border movements monthly.
Occupier demand is clustering near gateways that support reshoring, nearshoring, and speed-to-market cycles.
This is a tenant-driven footprint shift, not a macro trade story.
Occupiers are recalibrating logistics networks around border throughput and LTL efficiency.
Why It Matters for Developers & Lenders
Logistics demand is now shaped by:
location relative to manufacturing clusters
cross-border velocity
LTL integration
adjacent labor + transport infrastructure
Border metros like El Paso and Laredo are emerging as priority nodes for users who need speed, reliability, and redundancy in freight flows.
For CRE, this means:
site selection, underwriting, and land pricing in border corridors will diverge from national industrial averages. Read Full Signal →
➤ TAKEAWAY
Today’s Signals — C-PACE expansion and border logistics growth — reflect adoption, not reaction.
Capital is adopting new financing structures to solve cost-of-capital constraints and align with ESG-policy incentives.
Tenants are adopting new logistics geographies to solve freight timing, cost efficiency, and nearshoring demands.
In both cases, the shift is behavioral and structural:
C-PACE now sits inside the institutional capital stack.
Border logistics now sits inside tenant-required supply chain networks.
For operators, this means success in 2026 hinges on recognizing where adoption curves are forming — and positioning ahead of them.
🔭 Outlook / What’s Next
Expect more institutional funds to raise dedicated C-PACE pools.
Watch for policy shifts expanding PACE jurisdictions and eligible improvements.
Track LTL consolidation volumes in El Paso and Laredo as early signals for space absorption.
Monitor land pricing and construction starts along border corridors — they will likely outperform national industrial averages.
Expect more occupier-driven site plans that integrate cross-border speed and nearshoring-sector clustering.
▼ EDITORIAL DESK TOP PICKS
Holiday Spending Splits Retail Market Affluent shoppers drive luxury sales while value-focused households fuel off-price chains, creating a two-tier retail performance pattern heading into peak season.
Urban Retail Leasing Picks Up. NYC’s SoHo and Upper East Side show rising retail demand from luxury, food-and-beverage, and experiential tenants, signaling recovering foot traffic and improving landlord leverage.
Raising Cane’s Opens 14 New Stores. Fast-casual dining continues to outperform as Raising Cane’s accelerates expansion, securing high-visibility sites and strengthening demand for outparcel and drive-thru retail.
Largest Industrial Deal of 2025 Closes. EQT sold an 8.7M-SF, 25-property logistics portfolio, confirming ongoing institutional appetite for stabilized warehouse assets across major U.S. distribution hubs.
Industrial Supply Finally Eases. Q3 deliveries fell 32.5% YoY as the pipeline cooled, helping stabilize vacancy at 7.1% and supporting firm rents and values.
Prologis Invests in “Blue Highway” Logistics. Prologis is expanding its NYC waterfront logistics push, aligning with maritime freight initiatives to solve last-mile congestion and modernize dense-market distribution.
Fortress Executes $465M Resort Sale. Fortress is selling two Caribbean resorts through a $465M muni-bond structure, signaling creative financing demand in hospitality as investors target luxury assets supported by strong travel fundamentals.
San Francisco Hotels Trade at Deep Discounts. Hilton Union Square and Parc 55 sold for $408M, far below previous valuations, reflecting urban hotel distress while signaling investor confidence in a long-term recovery cycle.
Investors Flocking to Luxury Hotels. Global RevPAR is rising and luxury hotels show the strongest pricing power, driving renewed private equity interest and higher 2025 transaction forecasts.
Multifamily Bidding War Intensifies Post-Fed Cuts. October multifamily acquisitions saw the sharpest bid-intensity increase of 2025, fueled by improved liquidity, chronic housing undersupply, and investor rotation back into stable cash-flow assets.
Midwest Renter Demand Surges. Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Minneapolis lead the country in renter demand as affordability drives migration, strengthening fundamentals and boosting investor interest across secondary Midwest metros.
Rent Collections Improve for Small Operators. On-time rent payments rose to 83.7% in November, marking the third consecutive month of improvement—an encouraging stabilization signal for multifamily owners facing delinquency pressure.
Office Markets Recover Unevenly. Cities with limited new supply—New York, Miami, Charlotte—are posting falling vacancies, while overbuilt markets like Austin and Seattle continue to face absorption headwinds.
Houston Investor Repositions Aging Office Asset. LandPark Advisors acquired an eight-story Houston building to renovate and reposition for higher-quality tenancy, reflecting selective opportunistic buying in discounted office markets.
Flat Rates, High Vacancies—Welcome to the New Office Normal.Hybrid work cements itself as the dominant force in space demand.
The New Office Math: Less Building, More Waiting.33M SF underway and stable pricing suggest developers are pacing supply to demand volatility.
🏙️Office
Distress Improves—But Maturity Defaults Surge. CRE CLO delinquencies dropped to their lowest level of 2025, yet 43% of loans maturing this year became non-performing due to refinancing gaps.
Office Defaults Drive CMBS Spikes. Manhattan and Hartford office towers missed balloon payments, pushing office CMBS delinquency to 8.1%, underscoring ongoing stress in aging urban office stock.
Weekly “Return-to-Lender” Deals Accelerate. Receiverships and distressed sales—including nursing homes and mixed-use assets—are rising as operators struggle with inflation, labor costs, and refi hurdles.
