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Three consecutive Fed rate cuts are thawing capital markets, reopening lending pipelines, and easing refinancing stress across commercial real estate. Deal flow is returning, but not everywhere — and not for everyone. The gap between revived liquidity and selective deployment is where this cycle will be defined.
➤ SIGNAL
Capital Markets Are Reopening — Quietly but Decisively
After a brutal two-year freeze, CRE capital is finally moving again — and the driver isn’t optimism, it’s interest rates. The Fed’s third consecutive 25-basis-point cut, bringing rates to ~3.5%–3.75%, marks a clear directional pivot. It’s not the magnitude — it’s the signal. Liquidity is back. Now everyone’s watching to see who moves first.
Debt funds and banks are back. CMBS issuance is up 5x from last year. Banks, which had been sidelined, now make up 31% of new originations. Private credit is still dominant, but traditional lenders are reasserting their weight.
Winners, Losers, and a Repricing Window
Refinancing distress? Not gone, but softer. Over $900B in CRE loans matured in 2025 — and until last quarter, many penciled only at forced-sale values. Now? Rates are low enough to extend, recap, or even sell cleanly in multifamily and industrial. Office? Still broken.
Bid-ask spreads are narrowing — not because sellers adjusted, but because capital did. Construction starts are quietly resuming in logistics, multifamily, and data center assets, especially in Sun Belt markets where debt terms improved fastest.
What’s Next
Expect a capital deployment surge in Q1, but don’t confuse liquidity with leniency. Rates may be falling, but credit committees aren’t chasing yield — they’re rewarding clean deals with tight underwriting and institutional backing.
Three dynamics to watch:
Private debt will get more expensive before it gets cheaper. As banks return, debt funds will pivot pricing up, not down, to preserve returns.
Multifamily and industrial cap rates will compress fast. The window for premium yield in stabilized product is closing — groups sitting on the sidelines may miss the repricing gap.
Office distress will deepen — selectively. Lenders are triaging. Trophy assets will refi. Commodity space will not. A wave of discounted asset sales is coming, but only for sponsors who can close with certainty.
The Fed gave CRE its first real tailwind in two years. Now capital is ready — and discipline, not optimism, will determine who gets funded.
➤ TAKEAWAY
This isn’t a rally. It’s a recalibration. Capital is available. Pricing is clearing. But underwriting is brutal, and lenders remember 2022. The next 90 days will sort the market into two lanes: operators ready to transact under new rules, and those still hoping for old ones. Smart money isn’t waiting — it’s repricing selectively, refinancing surgically, and starting to build again.
▼ EDITORIAL DESK TOP PICKS
Walmart highlights its fast delivery for last-minute gifts, reaching 95% of U.S. households within 3 hours, aiming to attract shoppers even on Christmas Eve.
This week’s roundup: holiday shoppers turn to buy now, pay later (BNPL) services, and Walmart celebrates bringing Anthropologie to its headquarters.
DXL and FullBeauty plan to merge, aiming to capture opportunities in a fragmented and underserved market despite the growing use of GLP-1 drugs.
🛍️Retail
A 220,741-square-foot distribution facility has been completed at Riverfront Logistics Park in Dallas’ Design District.
Basis Industrial acquires a 42-building industrial portfolio in Hialeah, Florida, as TA Realty sells multiple Miami-area warehouses for $84.75 million.
Anheuser-Busch plans to close three breweries nationwide: the New Jersey facility has a buyer, while sites in California and New Hampshire will be shut down.
🏭Industrial
Aareal’s €250 million financing will accelerate Miiro Hotels’ expansion across Europe, while InterGlobe plans to reposition more K+K Hotels assets under the Miiro lifestyle brand.
Festive hotel displays are lighting up the season, with life-sized gingerbread houses and ice tubing adding extra cheer to December travel.
Mandarin Oriental shareholders approved Jardine Matheson’s $4.2 billion go-private bid, moving the luxury hotel company closer to full private ownership.
🛏️Hospitality
Two apartment complexes south of Seattle have been sold as regional demand rises, with Goodman Real Estate fetching just under $36 million for Lakewood-area properties.
After its Mag Mile deal, Chicago’s Cedar Street acquires a 132-unit, seven-story building in the Bucktown neighborhood on the North Side.
Chicago’s Milieu apartment tower, a 275-unit building, sells for over $134 million as Amli Residential acquires it from Pacific Life, marking another active deal in a busy year.
🏘️Multifamily
Suburban Boston scores a major post-pandemic office lease as Dassault Systemes renews its sprawling Waltham campus.
Event booking firm Leading Authorities moves to a larger D.C. headquarters, with J.P. Morgan Asset Management having acquired the K Street building from Carr Properties in July.
Zurich’s US real estate chief, Sean Bannon, targets high-energy city pockets, taking a hyperlocal approach to uncover office properties with long-term value.
🏙️Office
A new report exposes the companies driving Australians into bankruptcy, revealing who is aggressively chasing debts and legal action.
🏙️Distress
